2022.01.23 12:28 BlackRoseKing 圧倒的不利を逆転｢平清盛｣武才がわかる驚きの策 - 平氏が栄華を極める契機｢平治の乱｣の顛末
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2022.01.23 12:28 Unnamed10Boi Stuck in level (more info in comments)
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2022.01.23 12:28 nongshimramyun [Song] Social Climb - Moments
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2022.01.23 12:28 netflixhaber Every First and Last Line in After Life | Netflix
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2022.01.23 12:28 bruce_ice Bilibili
2022.01.23 12:28 small_town_legends When I got the sitting pose set I knew exactly where to go.
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2022.01.23 12:28 NewsElfForEnterprise Winnebago Just Unveiled Its First Electric Camper Van
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2022.01.23 12:28 felixthursday Michael Cohen says Donald Trump told him if one of his kids had to go to prison to 'make sure' it was Donald Jr., not Ivanka
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2022.01.23 12:28 AutoNewspaperAdmin [World] - Coronavirus: Hong Kong health expert warns of ‘very high risk’ to unvaccinated, seniors after cases detected at hospitals, homes for elderly | South China Morning Post
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2022.01.23 12:28 T_vernix Aliens are studying modern earth and come across the budgets of nations. Among the many questions (and there are a lot) they wonder how a democratic nation could ever justify spending more than 0.1% of its GDP on the military during peacetime.
2022.01.23 12:28 fine-spine Arataki Itto drawing reference without coat for my fellow artists <3
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2022.01.23 12:28 veedub6 What did the dealer stick to the windshield?
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2022.01.23 12:28 LemonKnuckles Understanding Bitcoin Price Through a Macro Lens
| Hi everyone. I see a lot of concerned comments from folks in the community lately wondering what's going on with Bitcoin price, and a lot of responses that try to explain things either through references to external events in the news cycle, chart analysis, whale activity, wild leaps of conspiracy theory, or flat-out trolls that BTC is dead.|
I'd like to see if we can't crowdsource a more macro-economic narrative, backed by data and reasonable hypotheses, to add to the discussion. I don't claim that any of what follows is infallible or the best way to look at things; but it is hopefully a decent place to start the conversation.
This is a 5-year view of the M2 money supply, consumer spending and real (inflation-adjusted) production, in aggregate dollars:
A few things here. A massive increase to the money supply beginning with the onset of the pandemic in response to cratering consumer spending and overall productivity. Recovery is fairly sharp. Consumer spending is actually materially up versus an imagined and extended pre-pandemic trend line. Real GDP is roughly on trend. Money supply, however, is up 40% from pre-pandemic levels, and about 26% from the accelerated trend-line we see starting in about 2019. The question is: if all of this excess money is not driving expanding productivity or increased consumption, where is it going?
We see the need for this question also if we look at what's happened to the velocity of money, because it's certainly not being transacted at its usual rate. This is Bearish.
I think there are a couple of different answers. First is increased money hodling in both the public and private sector. This is Bearish.
Second, excess capital has also been taking on unprecedented levels of risk in search of yield, pumping investment values to extreme levels. Consider the current valuation of the stock market across four key valuation indicators in historical context. This is Bearish.
Note the rocket-like trajectory of valuation coming out of the initial pandemic crash and coinciding with the rapid increase of the money supply. Note the extreme downside risk implicit in a reversion to mean. Why would anyone continue to take on that kind of risk in the pursuit of even more upside to these already crazy valuations? Especially given the Fed's recent announced accelerated interest rate increases that will better reward hodling, better protect the value of money by hopefully curbing inflation, and is basically throwing in the towel that the productive economy will be able to grow at a rate that would justify these kinds of valuations.
So where does that leave us bitcoiners? Unfortunately, we are being disabused of the notion that BTC is currently consensus seen as a secure store of value, but is rather consensus viewed as speculative growth tech. I believe this upcoming period of time will be critical. BTC is acting somewhat like a canary in the coal-mine for the economy overall, and the bloodbath price action we are seeing in it right now will spread more aggressively to other areas. The big test will be when the shit really hits the fan everywhere in a period of protracted pain. That is when the consensus view will swing or be confirmed, and when the value of bitcoin will be realized or lost.
I have been stacking and hodling BTC since 2017 and will continue to do so. But it's going to continue to be a wild ride.
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2022.01.23 12:28 Upstairs_Vast3138 Zu verkaufen meldet euch privat
2022.01.23 12:28 Basey124 Would it be fine to open a springtail culture every two days?
2022.01.23 12:28 suncorpse came back from thw hospital and this fucker is sitting in my bag like it’s a nest
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2022.01.23 12:28 superedgelord420 I am finally gonna see the way .... Gerrard way that is \o/
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2022.01.23 12:28 butterjack Caught my cat mid lick 😝 . #CatsOfTwitter #cute
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2022.01.23 12:28 Tendler_Dark Giorno Giovanna from JJBA and blue outfit giorno for manga fans
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2022.01.23 12:28 7ail_b0at Alternate title
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2022.01.23 12:28 MdSujonbd They are an excellent project with a committed and knowledgeable team. I will benefit a lot from this. I think it's a reliable project. #NFT #AIIP #NFTROBOTS and #CRYPTONEWS
2022.01.23 12:28 butterjack Someone parked their cat here . #CatsOfTwitter #cute
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2022.01.23 12:28 milkthefunk Bro! GameStop has some amazing Corgi gear. If you’re an Ein fan like me, you can’t miss out on these!!! Just search for Corgi and you’ll see…
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2022.01.23 12:28 LOLtimes5 Finnish Pulla with an orange glaze
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2022.01.23 12:28 Encephalonosaurus F26 « Sticking your tongue out is out of place on mature women » Well here’s my opinion dude 😛
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