My Thoughts on Australian Survivor 2016, 8 episodes in

2022.01.25 17:55 laneyflitt My Thoughts on Australian Survivor 2016, 8 episodes in

I posted the other day with my thoughts after four episodes, promising that I'd post again after 8. Well I've seen up to Episode 8 now, so I thought I'd post again with my thoughts.
Currently there are 18 contestants remaining. Des, Bianca, Evan, Peter, Barry, and Tegan have all been eliminated.
I'm fairly competent that Saanapu is the complex tribe at this point. Vavau has always been underdeveloped, and we haven't seen much of Aganoa since they started winning challenges. With Saanapu, they've been consistently visible and we've seen their tribe dynamics shift and change. The other tribes have been more static. This leads me to think it's more likely than not the winner will be from original Saanapu. I could be wrong about that though. People told me this is a bad season for edgic, which could lead to an unexpected winner. I also don't know how much the Australian editors buy into complex tribe theory. So it's definitely possible I'm wrong, but that's where my thoughts stand at this point.
I'm going to attempt to rank the 18 remaining castaways from most likely to win to least likely. At this point the edit of pretty much everybody has been inconsistent, so it's hard to choose. I think it's a three horse race at this point, with maybe an outside chance of a fourth of fifth horse.

  1. Flick- She's been portrayed as savvy and strategic, has gotten to explain her strategy. She did get some negative SPV in the episode where Conner was "voted out" but that's not enough to knock her off. I put her at number one because she's been the most consistently visible of any of my top three contenders. She hasn't had the random spots of invisibility that Sam or Phoebe had.
  2. Sam- A great narrator, has gotten to talk about his strategy, and has been portrayed very positively as someone people trust and want to keep around. He hasn't been targeted yet. Other than the last episode, we usually get to hear his thoughts. I was a bit concerned that he had 0 confessionals in Episode 8, which is why I don't have him at number 1.
  3. Phoebe- Phoebe was the strongest contender after four episodes. She was portrayed as being in a power position, had one of the most visible edits, and got to talk about her strategy beyond just the upcoming vote. But since Aganoa went on their winning streak, she's basically become invisible. This is obviously concerning, and makes me think her content before was only circumstantial, and she was only so visible because she was important to the upcoming vote. It's not enough to knock her out of my top three though.
  4. Matt- Was UTR the first few episode, but has had a huge spike in content since Peter left. Was portrayed as the mastermind behind the last few votes, and has gotten some SPV about how smart he is. My concern with Matt is that he's been portrayed as very cocky, and it makes me think he's being more set up for a blindside than a win (similar to David in CvC 2). Still, he's gotten more potential winning content than most of them.
  5. Kylie- Kylie has been very visible, and she's been shown as an underdog. She's obviously somebody the editors want us to root for. My problem with the "super visible underdog who struggles early on" edit is they typically don't win, but rather go deep in the game and get voted out just before the end. That's my prediction of where Kylie's headed, but I still think it's possible she could win.
  6. El- Didn't get as much content as Phoebe when Aganoa was going to tribal council, but has been more consistently visible the last few episodes, and got to give her thoughts on the merge whereas Phoebe didn't. Could be setting up a UTR, unexpected winner.
  7. Kate- Has gotten personal content, gotten to explain her backstory, and been portrayed positively. She's also gotten to talk a little bit about her strategy. I'd be shocked if somebody from original Vavau won, but I think Kate is the most likely candidate from that tribe.
  8. Nick- The most consistently visible member of Vavau. He's gotten to explain his backstory (talking about his mom), constantly tells us his strategy, and his been front and center in almost every episode. The problem with Nick's winning chances is that he has tons of negative SPV. People don't trust him, they think he's a liar, they think he's a snake. Nick tells a plan to another person, and that person then has a confessional where they say they don't trust Nick. I think this makes it pretty unlikely that he's the winner despite his visibility and CP content.
  9. Craig- Perhaps the most strategic member of Vavau. He's been portrayed as smart and savvy, has gotten to tell us about his alliance. He's come on strong recently, but his UTR edit the first few episodes concerns me.
  10. Sue- Has been portrayed positively and has gotten to talk about her strategy. Hasn't been visible enough to be a true contender.
  11. Conner- Has disappeared completely since his great premier. I had him as my top contender after the premier, but he's dropped consistently ever since then.
  12. Kristie- Has gotten some strategic content, talking about her alliance with Phoebe, but she didn't get any confessionals in episodes where her tribe went to tribal council. That's a bad sign.
  13. Lee- Very OTT positive, but not much CP content. He could be a fallen angel who gets swap screwed or go home early merge for being a challenge threat (similar to Shaun's edit in CvC 2) but I don't see him winning.
  14. Andrew- Has gotten a little bit of strategic content, but he's mostly been UTR and has no personal content to speak of. UTR and gamebot are not a good combination for a winner.
  15. Kat- emerged as a bit of a narrator the last few episodes, but still has a target on her back, hasn't talked much about her strategy, and has negative SPV from other Aganoa members. I might bump her up a bit if she survives the next few episodes, but I still don't see how she wins.
  16. Jennah Louise- Seems to be drawing dead at this point. She was invisible the first few episodes, I don't think she had a confessional until episode 4 or 5, and even then it was just talking about the reward. She's gotten to talk about her strategy more recently and they've developed her relationship with Craig, but outside of that she doesn't have much. She is in a bad position on her current tribe, and I could see her going home soon.
  17. Brooke- Not in a great position as the inferior partner to Flick. Her and Flick sort of remind me of Janine and Pia from CvC 2, but unlike Pia Brooke has absolutely no content to set her apart. Literally all we know about her is that she's tight with Flick. I don't think it bodes well for her chances.
  18. Rohan- I'll bet money on this guy not winning. He's got more negative SPV than even Nick, but has none of the CP content to go with him. Early on, he was shown as untrustworthy for lying to Phoebe about the idol. Now in this last episode, people think he's annoying about the fire. We haven't heard his own thoughts to deflect any of this. He has an idol, but hasn't even mentioned it since he found it. He's also a huge challenge threat, which will make him a big target come the merge. I just don't see it working out for him.
Those are my thoughts after eight episodes. I think I will post again once I get to episode 12.
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I work as a TA for context, and I was/am planning on starting at a new school.
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